ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL FACTORS THAT I THINK COULD INFLUENCE THE STOCK PRICE IN THE NEXT 30 DAYS FOR A COMPANY LIKE:

R.C.L.

Stock market prices are affected by business essentials, company and world events, human sensibility, and much more. In spite of the fact that none can predict the future, at least studying past events and cases can help us make more educated guesses of what could happen in a company that as a result could affect its stock price.  In the case of Royal Caribbean cruise line (R.C.L.) there could be different scenarios or situations that could lead the stock price of the company to go up or down in matter of days.

·        Sudden weather inclement like a hurricane that can come with little announcement and can become a disasters of major proportions in a week can be one reason.  Summer is the best time for Caribbean cruises, it’s actually their harvest time of the year; however, it’s also hurricane season for this area of the world.  In the past, devastating hurricanes like Wilma (2005) or Andrew (1992) both started as a small storm and made people think at first that they continue on with their busy schedules and routines, and it was not.  Little storms that become intimidating and destructive hurricanes can be detriment for leisure and tourism industries like Royal Caribbean cruise line.  An event like this bring loses to the company since passengers have to be refunded for a cancelled trip.  

·        Layoffs is another factor that also affects stock prices, especially if a CEO is the one being layoff. Depending on a specific situation involved that could lead to a CEO fired, the company name could be used and abused by media, and this could affect stock price.   If only some layoffs happen, in a way this could lower the expenses of the company and rise profits, and this could be favorable for stocks.   

·        General economy conditions and inflation influence tremendously on commodity prices, since vacation is an option people make, not a first need to cover like food on the table or bills.  Price of oil is a very important factor to consider. If oil price goes up, consequently, ticket price for passengers has to go up also.  Food price goes also up if oil price goes up, then, a cruise line like Royal Caribbean would have to choose between raising the price of a ticket and keeping food quality or cut down on food quality and not raising the price of a ticket. 

·        Competition factor: it is important that RCL keeps its name up high with media since there is strong competition.  Royal Caribbean corporate owns, Royal Caribbean and Celebrity cruises lines only.  Their competitions are Norwegian, and Carnival corporate that owns Princess, Holland America, CND cruise lines (a total of 85 ships worldwide, the largest in the world).  Then, Royal Caribbean’s prices depend also on competition prices of these companies. 

·        Sick cruise ships, who can prevent them?  They are disastrous for cruise company reputations.  In spite of the fact that less than 1% of passengers get sick on a cruise ship, misfortunes have happened in the past where 200, more than 500 or so have been contaminated with bad viruses.  Contaminations of Norwalk virus happened by the hundreds in November and December of 2002 for Disney and Holland America cruises (Norwalk virus is a common gastrointestinal bug that brings on short but intense sessions of abdominal cramping, vomiting and diarrhea). The highly contagious virus can lay victims low for two days.  Cruises bring together people from all over and sequester them in a small, confined space; diseases can spread rapidly -- just as in college dormitories, military barracks and other close-quarters situations.  Is not a surprise that these outbreaks could happen, but they are horrible when news like these get to media for cruise lines profits and reputation.   

·        Last but not least, we can mention unexpected accidents as the one from Costa Concordia this past January 2012.  News like this one can erase the idea of some people to board a cruise ship in a long time on the basis of fear.  This works just the opposite as the ads show that cruise ships are just fun and entertainment; being this one, another unexpected factor that could lead stock price to go down in a short period of time.